Gartner predicts global semiconductor revenue growth to decline 3.6% in 2023

Global semiconductor revenue is expected to decline 3.6% in 2023, according to the latest forecast from Gartner, Inc. In 2022, the market is expected to grow 4% and total $618 billion.

“The near-term outlook for semiconductor revenue has deteriorated,” said Richard Gordon, vice president of the practice at Gartner. “The rapidly deteriorating global economy and weakening consumer demand will negatively impact the semiconductor market in 2023.”

Global semiconductor revenue is expected to reach $596 billion in 2023, down from the previous forecast of $623 billion (see Table 1).

Table 1. Semiconductor revenue forecast, worldwide, 2021-2023 (USD million)

Source: Gartner (November 2022)

Currently, the semiconductor market is polarized between consumer-oriented markets and business-oriented markets. The weakness in consumer-driven markets is largely due to declining disposable income caused by rising inflation and rising interest rates, but also to the redirection of consumer discretionary spending to other areas such as as travel, leisure and entertainment, which have a negative ripple effect on technology purchases.

On the other hand, business-oriented markets such as enterprise networking, enterprise computing, industrial, medical and commercial transportation have so far been relatively resilient despite the impending macroeconomic slowdown and geopolitical concerns.

“The relative strength of business-focused markets comes from strategic investments by businesses looking to strengthen their infrastructure to continue to support their work-from-home business expansion plans and ongoing digitalization strategies,” Gordon said.

Memory revenues will drop 16% in 2023

For the rest of 2022, the memory market is seeing faltering demand, bloated inventory and customers pushing for significantly lower prices. As a result, the memory market will remain stable in 2022 and is expected to decline 16.2% of its revenue in 2023.

The deteriorating economic outlook is negatively impacting production of smartphones, PCs and consumer electronics, positioning the DRAM market for oversupply for the remainder of 2022 and the first three quarters of 2023. Gartner analysts predict that DRAM revenues will decline 2.6% to $90.5 billion in 2022 and decline another 18% in 2023, to $74.2 billion.

The NAND factory outage that occurred in the first quarter of 2022 raised prices and masked the rapidly deteriorating demand environment, leading to excess inventory in the third quarter of 2022 which is expected to continue into the first half of 2023 NAND revenue is expected to grow 4.4% to $68.8 billion in 2022, but is on track to decline 13.7% in 2023 to $59.4 billion.

“While the deteriorating macroeconomic environment will weaken consumer demand, we expect relatively better semiconductor consumption due to business investment. As a result, markets such as industry, telecommunications infrastructure and centers data will be less impacted by consumer sentiment and spending in the near term,” Gordon said.

Gartner customers can learn more in “Forecast Analysis: Semiconductors and Electronics, Worldwide.”